David's Anthem Journal

Welcome, Readers

Welcome to the Anthem Journal, a blog established by David Berman to provide Sun City Anthem residents with an independent, literate, responsible channel for sharing timely news and information about SCA and the immediate world around us. Here you can post your own comments and questions, and you are free to express your (respectful) opinions, whether you agree or disagree with what I or other readers have to say on a subject. If you like the Anthem Journal, consider using the box in the left sidebar to become a subscriber, which will allow you to receive e-mail notices when I've posted new content on the blog. Note: By subscribing to the Anthem Journal, you are agreeing to receive political content and understand that the blog will be used by its owner to express SCA-related political opinions from time to time. (Note: All posts by David to David's Anthem Journal are copyrighted (c) by David Berman and may not be used, in whole or in part, without his permission, except for material quoted from other sources)

Restaurant Survey: What is Statistical Validity?

 

At the January 24 Restaurant Survey meeting, it was reported that 1,643 surveys had been returned, which is a 23 percent response rate.

Of that number, 77.8 percent said they want a restaurant in Anthem Center.

Some residents attending the meeting, as well as at least one other person writing on another forum, challenged whether a 23 percent response rate is, in fact, statistically valid.

To make this determination, one must understand the relationship between survey response rates, the population being sampled, and statistical validity.

When a survey is sent to an entire population, in this case our 7,144 homes, the number of surveys that are returned is called the SAMPLE.

But how many surveys need to be returned in order to be able to say that the results are valid? In order for the results to be valid, you need a “statistically representative sampling size.”

When you have a statistically representative sampling size, you can say with at least 95 percent certainty that the opinions expressed in the sample are the same as those to whom surveys were sent but no responses were received. That is, it is 95% certain that the opinions of the sample represent the opinions in the entire population.

Statistics experts and mathematicians long ago created tables that allow survey developers to determine statistical validity. If there are not enough surveys received back to establish a statistically representative sample, then the results that are reported should specify that the findings represent only the opinions expressed by those in the sample, as opposed to being able to reliably project the opinions that the sample represents of the entire surveyed population.

According to the Sample Size Table for Proportions, what is the number of surveys that would have to be returned to establish a statistical validity for our population of 7,144 homes?

Well, the table, which rounds off the numbers, says that for 7,000 homes the number of surveys returned must be 364 to establish statistical validity.

In the case of the SCA restaurant survey, 1,643 valid surveys were returned, greatly exceeding the minimum number required for statistical validity.

What this means is that the probability is at least 95% that the results would have been the same even if 7,144 surveys had been returned.

I have found this phenomenon to be much the same with the surveys/polls I have conducted on this blog. After a fairly small number of responses have come in during the first day or two, the percentages of the various responses barely budge. In other words, the early small sampling hardly changes as the sampling grows larger and larger.

It is clear, therefore, that the SCA restaurant survey meets the test of statistical validity by a very wide margin.

If anyone would like to be linked to one of the websites that provide the information I have discussed above, send me a personal e-mail.

Presentation of Restaurant Survey Results Draws Large Crowd

 

A standing-room-only crowd of residents turned out at Independence Center on Tuesday, Jan. 24, for the presentation and discussion of results of the recently conducted restaurant survey.

 

 

The confluence of two major events at about the same time –the survey meeting and the Republic Services open house- led to a completely full parking lot, with some residents having to park off premises.

The restaurant survey meeting was jointly conducted by Restaurant Advisory Committee (RAC) chairman Michael Wolf and Board of Directors President Jim Long, with RAC members and SCA directors seated at the table.

 

 

Michael Wolf kicked off the meeting by reporting the survey results, which are summarized as follows:

A total of 1,700 surveys were returned, with 1,643 declared valid after rejection of some due to failure to comply with the survey-completion process.

The number of valid surveys represented a return rate of 23% of eligible rooftops.

The percentage of survey-takers wanting a restaurant was 77.8%.

Leasing the restaurant to a restaurant operator was the first choice, at 47.4%. Leasing to a caterer was second choice (22.3%). Entering into an arrangement with a culinary school was third (16.3%).

Asked if they would accept increasing homeowner assessments to support a restaurant, 81% said no.

In declining order, the percentage favoring the following services:

Lunch: 79%

Dinner: 78.1%

Bar: 61.7%

Breakfast: 46%

Take-Out: 41.8%

Pool Service: 25.4%

Coffee/Tea: 22.5%

Entertainment: 18.9%

Asked if they would support gaming at Anthem Center, 58% answered yes.

Asked if they would support exclusive catering in Hanneman Hall (the ballroom) at Anthem Center, 58% answered yes.

While the survey was in process, said Board Treasurer Dan Forgeron, teams appointed by the Board’s restaurant sub-group investigated the viability of the various restaurant-operation options. He said some experts the teams spoke with recommended finding a qualified, experienced restaurant operator as the best approach to take.

A relationship with a culinary school had to be ruled out, Forgeron said, for several reasons, not the least of which was lack of interest on the part of schools that were approached. Distance was just one of the factors, Forgeron said, as well as the disruptions caused by semester breaks.

Board Vice President Wade Terry said that three current Las Vegas Valley restaurant operators had approached the Association in recent weeks and were given tours of the restaurant and kitchen.

Jim Long told the audience that City of Henderson fire inspectors had recently advised the Association that the area behind the Hanneman Hall stage can no longer be used as a catering staging area because it blocks emergency access to the back entrance to the building. This development, Long said, works to inhibit the use of outside caterers who would not have access to the restaurant kitchen if a new operator is brought in.

In the past, some residents have urged that a professional approach to finding a qualified tenant should include use of a restaurant consultant. Jim Long reported that an RFP (Request for Proposal) recently went out to a number of consultants, with the result that some have expressed interest in bidding for the job of consulting on finding a qualified restaurant tenant.

The agenda for today’s (Jan. 26) Board meeting includes the following three New Business items, on which action may be taken, related to the restaurant:

• Discussion of leasing as the preferred restaurant business structure.
   
•  Approve the concept of hiring a restaurant consultant firm.
   
• Approve the concept of appointing a work group to work with the consultant and make recommendations to the Board.

The ensuing resident comment period was lively but respectful.

Several speakers expressed the belief that the 23-percent survey response was not sufficient and was an indication that residents would not support a restaurant in Anthem Center. Dan Forgeron replied that the percentage of survey responses was much higher than is typical for such surveys and that the results are considered statistically valid.

Some speakers reinforced the survey result indicating that requiring homeowners to subsidize the restaurant would be extremely unpopular.

One speaker advocated passionately for allowing use of outside caterers, saying that staging could be done in one of the small rooms created in Anthem Center (Arlington, Bristol, Concord) when the ballroom is partitioned. And yet another speaker questioned how any one restaurant operator would be able to satisfy the needs of an SCA club or group that wanted an ethnic meal.

While I did not hear an answer to the second of these comments, it was noted that a past problem with staging a catering function outside of the kitchen was that the electrical connections could not always handle the power needs, resulting in a constant stream of blown fuses.

Editor’s Note: The term “staging” does not mean the actual conduct of a catered event, but refers to the area that a caterer would use to set up necessary equipment to cook, heat, and prepare for the event.

Board members noted that the right to exclusive catering would apply only to the Anthem Center ballroom. Both Independence Center and Liberty Center have meeting spaces and service kitchens that could be used by qualified caterers of resident groups’ choice.

As the comment period continued, the tone in the room became very positive, with a number of speakers noting how much they value the presence of a restaurant in Anthem Center, regarding it as an important amenity. One speaker in particular, a realtor who has been a SCA homeowner for about a year, was warmly received for her thoughtful comments about the value of a restaurant as an attraction to homebuyers and an influence on her own home purchase.

In summary: Residents seem to still want a restaurant in Anthem Center. They are not willing to subsidize it. They favor the former model of leasing the premises to a qualified, experienced restaurant operator who would have exclusive catering rights. The Board will seek the services of a professional restaurant consultant to help achieve these goals.

 

Board President Clarifies Report on IRS Appeal Denial

 

At the outset of the January 24 Board Book Review, SCA Board of Directors President Jim Long shed some light on the news that an IRS appeals officer had denied the Association’s appeal of an adverse finding by an IRS auditor.

Long said that official notification of the appeal rejection has not yet been received, adding that the team appointed to deal with the issue will be “taking time to review the finding and negotiate.”

In effect, Long was saying that the appeal denial does not preclude the ability to continue engaging in negotiations with the IRS.

 

Breaking News: IRS Turns Down Audit Appeal; Restaurant Equipment Missing

 

Board of Directors President Jim Long issued the following message to the community this afternoon (Jan. 23):

IRS appeal denied. We received notice late last week that the IRS Appeals Officer assigned to our Association’s administrative appeal of the 2007 tax audit has denied our appeal and upheld the findings of the IRS examiner. We expect the IRS to issue a statutory notice of deficiency within the next several weeks. After this occurs, we will have 90 days to file a petition for judicial review of the IRS decision. We have asked the Ad Hoc IRS Audit Task Force appointed at the May board meeting to recommend a course of action for consideration at the February board meeting.

Restaurant equipment missing. After the restaurant closed, our staff conducted an inventory of the restaurant equipment and compared this inventory to the inventory conducted before Anthem View opened. This comparison of inventories revealed that many inventory items are missing. The missing items had a combined original purchase price of $53,503. We have taken the following actions in response to this information: (1) sent a letter demanding return of the missing equipment to the restaurant tenant’s owners; (2) instructed our staff to examine the tapes from our security cameras to determine if they show removal of missing equipment; (3) filed a police report for the missing equipment; and (4) contacted our insurance agent about filing an insurance claim. We will continue to pursue all available avenues for obtaining the return of this missing equipment or payment for its value. Unfortunately, we were unable to take steps to prevent removal of restaurant equipment from Anthem Center due to Section 7.01(iii) of the AVR Lease, which authorized the tenant to use our equipment to prepare and stage off-premise catering events.

Events this week.

Board book review. Our Board will review and discuss the agenda for the January board meeting starting at 10 a.m. tomorrow (Tuesday) in Anthem Center.

Restaurant survey discussion. The board book review will reconvene at 2:30 tomorrow afternoon for the Restaurant Advisory Committee to present the results of the restaurant survey conducted last month. This meeting will be in the Penn Room in Independence Center.

Open house to discuss proposed trash collection changes. Republic Services and the City of Henderson will be sponsoring an open house in Anthem Center tomorrow from 2:00 – 5:00 p.m. and from 7:00 – 9:00 p.m. You can stop by anytime during these hours to discuss this proposed new program.

The January board meeting will start at 1:30 p.m. on Thursday in Freedom Hall.

Jim Long, Board President

Note: Those who receive Jim Long’s message via e-mail blast may note an item about the upcoming Republican caucus. The information was incorrect, so I deleted it from the above post with the approval of Jim Long.

Meetings & Events for Week of January 23

 

It’s good to be in the know. That’s why I’m a faithful reader of David’s Anthem Journal – Sherryl Daly

 

 

Here is a preview of significant meetings & events for the week beginning Monday, January 23, 2012. The listed activities are open to all residents with a valid Member Identification Card. Venues are subject to change.

 

Monday, January 23

 

 

Happy New Year to our Chinese friends!

---------------

 

At 7:00 p.m. in the Delaware Room at Anthem Center, the Lifelong Learning Club is pleased to present:

 

 

Jerry, a Sun City Anthem resident, has lived an amazing life, starting with being interned, after Pearl Harbor, for 3½ years along with 120,000 others of Japanese descent, 80,000 of whom were American Citizens.

 

 

After WWII, Jerry’s family was relocated to inner-city Milwaukee, where, improbably, he was chosen as an American Field Exchange Student to Sweden as a high school junior. He subsequently received scholarships to DePauw University, and Columbia Graduate School.

Jerry gave up his college deferment to attend Navy Officer’s School, was a decorated Vietnam Veteran, and then became an international business executive, based in London, with trips to Iran, Bahrain, Beijing China and 17 other foreign countries.

Sakura was the founder and CEO of the Southern California Venture Capital Symposium in Newport Beach, followed by some 14 years working for a sister company of PIMCO (the one trillion dollar bond portfolio managers), investing $930 million on behalf of nearly 50 US Pension Funds.

Like WWII Veterans and Holocaust survivors, there are only a few Japanese Americans who were in Internment Camps still around to tell us about their experiences. Don't miss this opportunity to hear about this important but tragic slice of history from one who was there.

 

Tuesday, January 24

 

The Sun City Anthem Board of Directors will conduct its monthly Board Book Review at 10:00 a.m. in the Arlington/Bristol Rooms at Anthem Center.

---------------

 

 

---------------

 

If you are wondering about the results of the recent Restaurant Survey, you will want to attend the public meeting at 2:30 p.m. in the Penn Room at Independence Center, where the results of the survey will be presented and discussed.

 

Thursday, January 26

 

The Board of Directors will conduct its monthly Board Meeting at 1:30 p.m. in Freedom Hall at Independence Center.

---------------

 

 

Residents of HIGHLANDS VILLAGE are invited to attend their 5th Annual Neighborhood watch meeting at 6:00 p.m. in the Bristol Room at Anthem Center.

Neighbors will meet neighbors while enjoying refreshments.

The agenda includes a summary of criminal activities that were reported over the past year; a special news clip; and a “Speak Out” segment when residents will describe the ways they have been improving the safety of their property and will offer ideas on how to improve Neighborhood Watch in Highlands Village.

Come to enjoy an evening of camaraderie and sharing of ideas with your Highlands neighbors. You will also be able to pick up your updated Neighborhood Watch telephone list, the 2012 recycle slip, and special survival items.

One lucky resident will win a fully equipped Survival Knapsack.

 

Friday & Saturday, Jan. 27 & 28

 

When “Showgirl Follies” was presented in Freedom Hall, the show sold out.

Now it’s time for “Showgirl Follies 2,” so don’t let yourself get shut out.

 

 

 

Take a look at the video promotion for this fabulous show:

 

Blood Drive Next Week

 

Readers: Here’s an alert for a very worthy event –a blood drive- being conducted in Anthem Center on Wednesday, January 25.

Sign-up information is listed in the poster below.

Notice that all blood donors will receive a voucher for two free tickets to “Name That Tune Live” at the Imperial Palace. These tickets have a combined value of $60, and the show is an absolute blast. This reporter attended the show on its second day and won a very nice prize.

An added bonus: The blood you donate will also be tested for cholesterol if you wish, and you will be able to call United Services to obtain the result of your cholesterol test.

I know there are many residents who have been committed blood donors all their adult lives, and nothing can be more convenient than donating right here in Anthem Center!

 

Rumor Mongering at Work

 

Over on the SCA version of the National Enquirer, Richard Arendt publishes this message –quoted in part- from a resident. My comments are interspersed in red.

---------------

OUR FRIEND AND NEIGHBOR was playing mah-jong at the clubhouse on Monday, and witnessed a dozen men, in business suits, dress shirts and ties (very unusual for Sun City Anthemers on a Monday morning!), being led into the restaurant by a side door (not the clubhouse entranceway), and being given a detailed tour of the restaurant, and its kitchen, with some pointing to the area with picture windows in the clubhouse, (where the mah-jong game was being played). (Slot machines???)

If the “friend and neighbor” noticed some suits being given a detailed tour of “the restaurant and kitchen,” but she was playing mah-jongg at the time, how does she know that the men were given a tour of the kitchen? And how does this person know how “detailed” the tour was? If he or she didn’t stand at the window and watch what was going on inside, isn’t it possible that the premises were simply used to conduct an unrelated meeting, which I understand has happened from time to time?

And where does the question of slot machines enter into it?

After about an hour or so, the group was led out the side door. Can you find out, from your sources, what was happening?

I’m not sure what sources Mr. Arendt has, but he could have certainly picked up the phone and called a Board member he feels comfortable talking to, such as Bella Meese or Wade Terry, and asked about it.

And if the writer saw the visitors being led in and led out of the restaurant, didn’t the observer see who was doing the leading?? Perhaps if we knew that, it might help to figure out what was happening.

I realize that the Board of Directors are answerable to no one,

The Board of Directors is answerable to the SCA homeowners. If we are unhappy with them, we can institute a recall or work to prevent their reelection.

but if this was a privately owned restaurant, or casino, privately financed, it has all the earmarks of financiers, which could mean that the Board of Directors is considering running a restaurant with gaming, but lacks the capital, and is seeking financial backers!

Talk about a flight of fancy, not to mention rumor-mongering! If indeed the message Arendt quotes is not fictitious, then it comes from someone with an incredibly vivid imagination.

It is not only un-American to support a money-losing subsidized restaurant, competing with Buckman’s Grill, which keeps the golf course open, in these troubled times

Buckman’s Grill does not keep the golf course open. Perhaps the message writer has access to financial data to show that Buckman’s, which is rarely open for dinner, makes such a huge profit that it subsidizes the golf course.

---------------

If people interested in running the restaurant in Anthem Center were given a tour, that would be wonderful. In fact, I have heard that some operators have made inquiries. I certainly would not expect the Board to stand still while waiting for the restaurant survey results or while continuing to assess the various options.

But it is typical of the Goodman/Arendt rumor machine that they will take anything for which they don’t have an immediate explanation and turn it into one of their ludicrous conspiracy theories.

Board Candidate Filing Period is Open

 

 

The filing period is now open for Sun City Anthem members wishing to run for one of the three available seats on the Board of Directors.

The deadline for filing as a candidate is 4:00 p.m. on Friday, February 17.

The Election Committee will conduct an informational session for prospective candidates at its 9:00 a.m. meeting on Tuesday, January 31 in Anthem Center.

If you wish to file as a candidate, please contact Lily Cardenas at 614-5815 or Skyler Jewell at 618-5805.

While wrestling with some difficult challenges, the directors serving on the 2011-2012 Board have demonstrated an extraordinary ability to work together in a cooperative manner, even when expressing passionate disagreement from time to time. They have set a positive tone we can only hope will encourage worthy Board candidates to seek to join them.

Here is a valuable statement that was part of a document distributed to prospective candidates by the Election Committee back in 2006:

What Makes an Effective Board Member?

Because we are very different from each other, there is no single answer to this question. In fact, it could be said that the very diversity of backgrounds and experience possessed by individual Board members is what makes for a dynamic, effective Board.

The most important quality is probably the ability to get along with others, and to be collegial and non-confrontational in dealing with fellow Board members, committees, Association staff and residents.

To meet the fiduciary responsibility, the ability to read and understand financial statements is important.

While the official requirements to run as a candidate are basic, it may benefit you if you have lived in Sun City Anthem long enough to have become involved on one or more levels in community life through club activities, attendance at Board and committee meetings, membership on a committee, etc.

 

Board President Announces Upcoming Meetings

 

Readers: Board of directors President Jim Long has distributed the following information about upcoming Sun City Anthem meetings:

Constituent services. The first quarterly Constituent Services event will be held this Wednesday, January 18, from 10:00 a.m. to Noon in the Arlington Room. Joining us will be representatives from the offices of US Senators Harry Reid and Dean Heller, Congressman Joe Heck and Nevada Assemblyman Lynn Stewart.

Restaurant survey results. The Restaurant Advisory Committee will present the results of the recent restaurant survey next Tuesday, January 24, at 2:30 p.m. in the Penn Room in Independence Center.

Open house to discuss proposed trash collection changes. Republic Services and the City of Henderson will be sponsoring an open house for Sun City Anthem residents to learn about the proposed changes in the Republic Services recycling and trash pick-up program. This open house in Anthem Center is scheduled for next Tuesday, January 24th with a session from 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. and another from 7:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m. You can stop by any time during these hours to discuss this proposed new program, and to ask questions about it.

Jim Long, Board President

From the Membership Services Desk:

Effective Wednesday 01/23/2012 – Member Services will be extending their work hours from 08:00 a.m. until 6:30 p.m. on Wednesdays only.

How Religion Divides and Unites Us

 

On Tuesday, January 17, at 10:00 a.m. in the Delaware Room at Anthem Center, the Lifelong Learning Center is pleased to present:

 

Dr. Vern Mattson

“How Religion Divides and Unites Us”

 

 

Vern, a Sun City Anthem resident, is the vice president and former president of the Lifelong Learning Club. He is a retired history professor and former chair of the UNLV History Department.

Dr. Mattson has presented many well received Lifelong Learning talks, and this is sure to be among them.